October: The Avenues is for sale, La Serena's pool is open

Here is what we have been up to this month: The Avenues is on the market, and La Serena (pictured) is turning a corner.

This month in 30 seconds

• The Avenues (Hermiston 17) is listed for sale at $2.7MM, with a refinance lined up as well.
• La Serena: almost 20 renovated units are done, nearly all year-one capital work is complete, and the pool is open.
• Our underwriting team grows to two analysts, backed by a deal system we built in-house.

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What we're up to

The Avenues (Hermiston 17)

• Operated fully stabilized for over a full quarter, supporting a potential year-five sale price now, in year three.

• Rent increases took effect October 1 on almost one-third of units, bringing them in line with nearly all of the other units.

• We are taking a two-pronged approach: the property is offered for sale at the year-five projected price, and a refinance is lined up as well.

La Serena (Houston)

• Almost 20 in-unit renovations are complete, a good portion are rented, and 3 residents have moved in.

• Classic units are renting at the year-one upgraded rent target, ahead of schedule, and renovated Premier units rent for $50 to $100 more.

• Nearly all of our year-one capital improvements were completed in the first four months, ahead of schedule, and the community is taking notice.

• After some serious attention, the pool is open for the first time in years, and residents are LOVING it!

Behind the scenes: AI tools and a second analyst

EagleCap believes in using cutting-edge tools for cutting-edge results. We could not find a commercial system that met all of our needs, so we used AI to build our own: it takes a deal from the first broker email through in-depth analysis, and it also runs our CRM and asset performance tracking. Deal flow has grown significantly since we closed La Serena, so we are bringing on a second analyst to keep analysis and offers timely.

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Market update

Vacancy is easing while rents stay slightly negative

Rents are still slightly below last year, but the trend has improved. Apartment List's national report shows the median rent was $1,388 in September, down 0.1% for the month and down 0.4% from September 2025. Year-over-year growth bottomed at -1.6% in April, so the gap has narrowed since then (Apartment List). The data shows rents are flat to slightly negative, not falling sharply. For an apartment owner, that means income growth is coming from operations and management more than from market-wide rent increases.

Vacancy has moved in the same direction. Apartment List puts the national multifamily vacancy rate at 7% in September, still elevated compared to long-run norms but lower than its earlier peak this year. Units are taking an average of 34 days to lease (Apartment List). For owners, occupancy and lease-up speed remain the key operating variables, and they vary by submarket and by property condition.

New supply is the other side of the picture. Yardi Matrix's Q3 2026 supply forecast puts 2026 completions at 490,362 units, 2.5% above its forecast one quarter earlier. The same report shows 2027 at 444,343 units and a 2024 peak of 697,099 units (Yahoo Finance, citing Yardi Matrix). Yardi's August bulletin notes that units under construction and in prelease continue to decline (Yardi Matrix). Deliveries are well below the 2024 peak, though the pipeline is not empty.

Financing is the other variable we watch closely. In our own deal search, Treasury yields have stayed high and seller pricing has not yet caught up with what buyers can underwrite at today's financing costs, so we are staying disciplined on price.

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